Herdsmen-Farmers Conflict and Food Security in Nigeria

Background to the Study

Agriculture underpins the livelihoods of an estimated 70 percent of Nigeria's rural population and contributes roughly a quarter of national GDP, making it the most important pathway out of poverty for millions of households in the Middle Belt and northern regions. Herdsmen-farmers conflict is not new — disputes over land, water access and grazing rights date back to the pre-colonial era — but the nature, scale and lethality of the conflict have transformed since the early 2010s. What were once localised, low-intensity disputes have evolved into organised, heavily armed attacks; by 2018, the Global Terrorism Index had ranked Fulani militant violence as more deadly in Nigeria than Boko Haram.

The structural drivers are interlinked. Climate change has contracted traditional pastoral corridors in the arid north, pushing herders further south in search of water and pasture, while the proliferation of small arms across the Sahel following Libya's 2011 collapse has militarised communities that were once largely unarmed. Population growth has reduced the buffer zones that historically separated grazing land from cropland, and weak land governance — including the incomplete implementation of Nigeria's gazetted grazing reserves — has left a vacuum in which violence increasingly substitutes for negotiation. ACLED's Nigeria conflict monitoring confirms that communal militias tied to farmer-herder disputes, concentrated in the North West and Middle Belt, accounted for a majority of civilian fatalities recorded in recent years. Students exploring the economic dimensions of this crisis can also review our economics project topics for related agricultural and resource-governance case studies.

Statement of the Problem

Nigeria's food security situation was already precarious before the intensification of herdsmen-farmers conflict. The country consistently ranks poorly on global food security indices, and roughly 133 million Nigerians live in multidimensional poverty, with food poverty among the most prevalent deprivations. Against this backdrop, herdsmen-farmers conflict functions as a critical threat multiplier — worsening food insecurity in already disadvantaged communities through direct agricultural destruction, population displacement, and institutional paralysis.

The problem operates at two levels. Immediately, attacks on farming communities during planting or harvest seasons directly reduce agricultural output in affected areas; a single raid that destroys a village's grain stores or drives its farmers off the land can have food security consequences that persist for years, particularly for households without access to credit or insurance. Structurally, chronic insecurity discourages investment in agriculture, reduces access to extension services, erodes the social capital of farming communities, and diverts government spending from agricultural development toward security operations. Despite the scale of the problem, government response has been inconsistent, underfunded and institutionally fragmented — the federal government has oscillated between military operations and dialogue without a coherent overarching strategy, while state governments have pursued divergent, largely uncoordinated approaches. Existing scholarship has examined the conflict's causes and humanitarian toll extensively, but systematic analysis of its food security consequences, integrated with an evaluation of policy responses, remains comparatively thin — a gap this study addresses.

Aim and Objectives

The main objective of this study is to examine the relationship between herdsmen-farmers conflicts and food security in Nigeria. The specific objectives are to:

●       trace the historical evolution and current patterns of herdsmen-farmers conflicts in Nigeria from 2015 to 2023;

●       assess the impact of herdsmen-farmers conflicts on agricultural output and food production in conflict-affected states;

●       examine the food security dimensions of the conflict, including effects on household food access, availability and utilisation;

●       evaluate the effectiveness of government policy responses, particularly the National Livestock Transformation Plan and state-level anti-open grazing legislation; and

●       propose policy recommendations for mitigating the food security consequences of herdsmen-farmers conflicts in Nigeria.

Research Questions

This study is guided by the following questions:

●       How have herdsmen-farmers conflicts evolved in Nigeria between 2015 and 2023, and what are the key patterns in their spatial distribution and intensity?

●       To what extent have herdsmen-farmers conflicts undermined agricultural output and food production in affected states?

●       What are the specific food security consequences of the conflict for affected communities in Nigeria?

●       How effective have government policies been in addressing the conflict and its food security consequences?

Significance of the Study

This study contributes at theoretical, empirical and policy levels. Theoretically, it enriches the application of Resource Scarcity Theory and the Conflict-Development Nexus Framework to the Nigerian context, bridging conflict studies, political science and agricultural economics — fields that have too often developed separately. Empirically, it offers a systematic, disaggregated documentation of the conflict's agricultural and food security consequences by state, crop type and period, an evidence base that has been largely missing from a literature more focused on causes and fatalities than developmental outcomes.

At the policy level, the study's evaluation of the National Livestock Transformation Plan and state anti-open grazing laws identifies the gaps and implementation failures limiting their effectiveness, offering a basis for more targeted reform. Students building a comparable research project on conflict, agriculture or resource governance can work with our research coaching service for structured feedback on theoretical framing and methodology.

Scope of the Study

Geographically, this study covers Nigeria as a whole, with particular emphasis on the Middle Belt states of Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Taraba, Kaduna, Niger and Kogi, which have recorded the highest concentrations of conflict incidents and agricultural disruption, alongside reference to the conflict's southward spread into Oyo, Enugu, Edo and Ebonyi. The temporal scope is 2015 to 2023, capturing the period of sharpest escalation, the introduction of major policy responses, and a sufficient body of data for comparative analysis.

Thematically, the study concentrates on the relationship between conflict and food security — agricultural output, food availability and access, population displacement, and policy effectiveness — rather than pure conflict analysis. FAO reporting on Nigeria's food security situation confirms that conflict, economic pressure and climate shocks continue to compound acute food insecurity in the country's most vulnerable states, underscoring the continued relevance of this scope beyond the study's 2023 endpoint.

Operational Definition of Terms

Herdsmen-Farmers Conflict

Violent confrontation between Fulani pastoralists and sedentary agricultural communities in Nigeria, typically arising from disputes over land use, crop damage by cattle, access to water sources, and the destruction of farmlands — encompassing organised armed raids, ambushes, retaliatory attacks and communal violence.

Food Security

Following the FAO's definition, the condition in which all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs. It is operationalised through four dimensions: availability, access, utilisation and stability.

Agricultural Output

The total quantity of agricultural produce, measured in metric tons, generated by farming communities in a given year or season, encompassing crops such as yam, cassava, rice, sorghum, maize and millet.

Pastoralism

The livelihood system and social organisation centred on herding livestock, particularly cattle, across seasonal migration routes in search of pasture and water — in the Nigerian context, most closely associated with the Fulani ethnic nationality.

National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP)

The federal government's 2019 policy framework aimed at transforming Nigeria's livestock sector from nomadic pastoralism to sedentary ranching, intended to reduce resource competition and modernise livestock production.

Displacement

The forced movement of individuals, families or communities from their homes as a direct or indirect result of herdsmen-farmers conflict, including internally displaced persons who settle in camps or host communities within Nigeria.

Conclusion

Herdsmen-farmers conflict has become one of the most significant threats to food security in Nigeria's Middle Belt and, increasingly, beyond it. The crisis sits at the intersection of climate change, demographic pressure, institutional failure and political economy dynamics in a way that resists single-sector or short-term intervention. The agricultural damage is not merely a humanitarian emergency but a long-term developmental one — with implications for Nigeria's food sovereignty, demographic stability and political cohesion that will outlast any eventual improvement in security conditions.

The evidence on policy response is not an argument that policy is futile, but that the measures deployed so far have been inadequate in scale, poorly coordinated, and insufficiently attentive to the structural drivers of the conflict. The National Livestock Transformation Plan contains the outline of a genuine solution if it is adequately funded and complemented by the regulatory and mediation frameworks it currently lacks. Students developing a related project on agrarian conflict, food security or resource governance can find further guidance on our About page, which explains how our resources are structured to support original research rather than replace it.

Frequently Asked Questions

What causes the herdsmen-farmers conflict in Nigeria?

The conflict is driven by competition over land, water and grazing routes, intensified by climate change, population growth, the proliferation of small arms across the Sahel, and the failure of Nigerian institutions to enforce or modernise grazing reserve policy.

How does the conflict affect food security?

It undermines all four dimensions of food security — availability, through direct destruction of crops and farmland; access, through food price inflation and lost income; utilisation, through displacement and disrupted diets; and stability, through the persistent insecurity that prevents agricultural recovery.

Which Nigerian states are most affected?

Benue, Plateau, Kaduna, Nasarawa and Taraba have recorded the highest concentrations of incidents and fatalities, though the conflict has spread southward into states such as Oyo, Enugu, Edo and Ebonyi.

What is the National Livestock Transformation Plan?

The NLTP is a 2019 federal policy framework intended to shift Nigeria's livestock sector from nomadic herding toward ranching and commercial livestock farming, though implementation has been slow and significantly underfunded relative to its goals.

Have state anti-open grazing laws worked?

Several states, including Benue, Taraba and Ekiti, have enacted anti-open grazing laws, but enforcement has generally been weak or partial, and the absence of a complementary national framework has limited their overall effectiveness.

How has the conflict affected agricultural output?

Key food crops including yam, cassava, Irish potato and rice have recorded significant production declines in the most conflict-affected states, with the steepest drops occurring during the conflict's peak intensity years.

What theories explain this conflict?

Resource Scarcity Theory explains how competition over land, water and grazing generates violent conflict, while the Conflict-Development Nexus Framework explains how that violence, in turn, dismantles the institutional and economic foundations of food security.

Has rural-urban migration increased because of the conflict?

Yes — displaced farmers in several conflict-affected states have migrated to urban centres in significant numbers, with many permanently abandoning farming as a livelihood, representing a lasting reduction in agricultural labour supply.

What policy reforms are recommended to address the crisis?

Recommended reforms include a comprehensive national grazing policy, adequate funding for the NLTP, strengthened early-warning and mediation systems, agricultural recovery funding for conflict zones, and deeper intergovernmental coordination.

Where can I find sample research projects on related topics?

You can browse political science and economics project topics in our research library for comparative case studies and methodological models to guide your own work.